Probability maps to identify airport infrastructure at risk from ash by the Popocatépetl Volcano

Abstract

The eruptive activity of the Popocatepetl volcano poses a significant risk to civil aviation in central Mexico due to the potential dispersion of volcanic ash into commercial flight levels and its deposition on airport infrastructure. This study presents a methodology for identifying aerodromes and heliports at risk of ashfall, using probability maps generated from the HYSPLIT dispersion model, historical meteorological data, and over 4,700 eruptive events reported between 1999 and 2023. The results reveal a clear seasonal pattern in ash dispersion: from November to May, prevailing winds carry ash eastward, affecting airports mainly in Puebla, Veracruz, and Morelos; while from June to October, ash dispersion shifts westward, impacting highly trafficked regions such as Mexico City and Toluca. A total of 84 aviation facilities were identified within areas with a probability of ash impact equal to or greater than 10%, underscoring the importance of incorporating these maps into volcanic risk management protocols and airspace planning. The proposed methodology provides a reliable tool for anticipating impact scenarios and prioritizing preventive actions, thereby enhancing operational safety and improving the resilience of the aviation system in the face of volcanic hazards.